🏥 Cancer was once considered incurable in Japan. But the latest statistics reveal a dramatic range: prostate cancer has a 94.3% five-year survival rate, while pancreatic cancer remains at just 10%. Japan's first nationwide cancer registry data shows survival rates varying from 12% to over 90% depending on the type—a stark reminder of both medical progress and ongoing challenges.
Japan's First Comprehensive National Cancer Registry Data
In November 2025, Japan's National Cancer Center released groundbreaking data on cancer survival rates. The study analyzed approximately 2.54 million patients diagnosed between 2012 and 2015, calculating "net survival rates" that isolate cancer as the sole cause of death.
This statistical milestone marks the first large-scale aggregation covering the entire nation following Japan's transition from regional to national cancer registration. The data comes from 44 prefectures meeting international quality standards, enabling meaningful global comparisons.
Significant Disparities by Cancer Type
High Survival Group (70-100%)
For men, prostate cancer leads at 94.3%, followed by skin cancer (90.9%) and thyroid cancer (88.6%). Among women, thyroid cancer tops the list at 92.7%, with skin cancer (92.4%) and breast cancer (88.7%) following closely.
These cancers share common characteristics: relatively slow progression and detectability through regular screening programs.
Medium Survival Group (30-69%)
Stomach cancer (63.5%) and colorectal cancer (67.2%)—both prevalent among Japanese—fall into this middle range. Lung cancer (35.5%) and liver cancer (33.7%) also appear here, though early detection significantly improves outcomes for these types.
Low Survival Group (0-29%)
Pancreatic cancer presents the most challenging prognosis, with survival rates of just 10.7% for men and 10.2% for women. Gallbladder and bile duct cancers remain similarly difficult to treat effectively.
The Dramatic Impact of Early Detection
Perhaps the most striking finding is how survival rates vary dramatically by stage of diagnosis.
For stomach cancer, patients diagnosed while the cancer remains localized show a 92.4% survival rate. However, when distant metastasis is present, this plummets to 6.3%.
Colorectal cancer follows a similar pattern: 92.3% for localized versus 16.8% with distant spread. Female breast cancer demonstrates this even more starkly—98.4% for early-stage versus 38.5% with metastasis.
Three Decades of Progress
Analyzing trends from 1993 to 2015 reveals encouraging improvements across many cancer types.
Notable improvements for men:
- Prostate cancer: +34.9 percentage points
- Multiple myeloma: +21.0 percentage points
- Malignant lymphoma: +18.2 percentage points
Notable improvements for women:
- Malignant lymphoma: +21.6 percentage points
- Leukemia: +19.5 percentage points
- Lung cancer: +18.4 percentage points
These gains reflect advances in targeted therapies, immunotherapy, diagnostic technology, and expanded screening programs.
Persistent Challenges
Not all cancers have improved. Bladder cancer survival rates actually declined for both sexes (men: -10.6 points, women: -5.9 points). Cervical cancer in women also dropped by 1.3 points, suggesting issues with prevention and screening efforts.
Pancreatic and gallbladder/bile duct cancers showed minimal improvement over the 30-year period, highlighting urgent needs for therapeutic breakthroughs.
Age-Related Variations
For most cancers, survival rates decrease with age—likely due to comorbidities and limitations on aggressive treatment in elderly patients.
Prostate cancer is a notable exception, where younger patients actually show lower survival rates. This may reflect that early-onset prostate cancer tends to be more aggressive forms of the disease.
Japan's Position in Global Cancer Care
Japan has achieved remarkable success in reducing mortality from stomach and liver cancers through widespread H. pylori eradication and hepatitis virus control programs.
However, international comparisons suggest Japan lags in reducing deaths from "screening-detectable cancers" like colorectal, breast, and cervical cancers. Increasing screening participation rates remains a key challenge.
What About Your Country?
In Japan, discussions continue about improving cancer screening rates and expanding insurance coverage for new treatments. While the importance of early detection is clear, debates persist about cost-effectiveness and resource allocation.
How widespread is cancer screening in your country? What access do patients have to the latest treatments? How does your society discuss "living with cancer"? We'd love to hear your perspectives on cancer care in your part of the world.
References
Reactions in Japan
Seeing that pancreatic cancer survival rate of 10% written out is devastating. I lost my grandmother to this disease, so I hope new drug development makes at least some progress.
Prostate cancer 94%, breast cancer 88%. Nothing but gratitude for medical advances. But early detection is the prerequisite for these benefits. I need to go get screened.
After seeing the 5-year survival data, I signed up for the optional gastroscopy at my company health check. 92% if early vs 6% if late is too big a difference.
Amazing that prostate cancer improved by 35 points over 30 years. PSA test adoption and improved surgical techniques must be the key factors.
I wonder if the declining cervical cancer survival rate is related to lower HPV vaccination rates. We need to spread accurate information more.
Speaking as a cancer survivor. Even with 5-year survival, there's recurrence risk, aftereffects - so much that numbers don't show. There's a reality that can't be captured by survival rates alone.
Many office workers say they don't have time for cancer screening, but seeing this data, you should take time off to go. No job is more important than your life.
Apparently Japan's screening rate is lower than America's. Even when they give out free coupons, many people don't go. What a waste, really.
Statistics are just averages. Even the same cancer has completely different prognoses depending on genetic mutation type. How meaningful are these rough numbers in the era of personalized medicine?
I'm a nurse. The reality is that pancreatic cancer is often Stage 4 when found. Since symptoms rarely appear, it's also hard to find through screening. A truly difficult cancer.
The 21-point improvement in malignant lymphoma is probably thanks to molecular targeted drugs like rituximab. Drug prices are high but the effects are definitely showing.
My father was found with Stage 2 colon cancer and had surgery. I shudder to think what would have happened if he hadn't gone for screening. Screening is truly important.
Concerned about the declining bladder cancer survival rate. Is treatment progress not keeping up even though patients are increasing due to aging?
I thought Japan's cancer treatment was world-class, but it's surprising that screening rates are low. Access to healthcare should be good though.
I wondered how prostate cancer survival can exceed 100%, but apparently when excluding non-cancer deaths, health-conscious people can live longer than the general population.
I was wondering whether to get cancer insurance, but decided to sign up after seeing this data. Treatment often becomes prolonged, so financial preparation is necessary.
If this is 2012-2015 data, survival rates might be even better now. Many treatments like immune checkpoint inhibitors became widespread after this period.
Some say the '5-year survival rate' metric itself is outdated. For some cancers, 10-year rates or progression-free survival might be more appropriate measures.
In the US, access to treatment varies greatly depending on health insurance. I envy Japan's universal healthcare system. With insurance, anyone can receive such advanced treatment, right?
Sweden shows similar trends. Pancreatic cancer survival remains low globally - this is truly a worldwide challenge. I think we need more international research collaboration.
I'm Canadian, and screening rates are an issue here too. Long wait times are also a problem - even knowing early detection matters, actually getting tested in a timely manner can be difficult.
UK's NHS is also seeing steady improvements in survival rates. But a difference from Japan might be whether patients actively choose treatments. I hear Japanese patients tend to respect doctors' decisions more.
Korea also has high stomach cancer survival rates. The spread of endoscopy is a common factor. But some people get stressed by screenings and actually get sick from that - it's a delicate balance.
In France, smoking rates - the main cause of lung cancer - remain high. If we could reduce smoking like Japan has, lung cancer prognosis should improve more. Prevention perspective is crucial.
In India, cancer diagnosis itself tends to be delayed in rural areas. The healthcare gap between cities and villages is large - even collecting nationwide data like Japan is challenging. I feel the infrastructure difference.
Germany's prostate cancer survival rate is similarly high to Japan's. But overdiagnosis from PSA testing is also debated. The perspective of whether we're finding too much and doing unnecessary treatment is important.
In Brazil, there's a big gap between public and private hospital quality. I assume Japan's figures are averages, but how much variation is there between regions and hospitals?
Australia has high skin cancer incidence, but survival is good thanks to early detection campaigns. Japan might have fewer skin cancers due to high UV protection awareness.
I'm Chinese. Colorectal cancer is increasing in China too, said to be influenced by Westernizing diets. We'd like to learn from Japan's prevention programs.
Unfortunately, Russia has lower survival rates than Western countries for many cancers. Healthcare system issues exist, but cultural tendencies to avoid diagnosis might also play a role.
Egypt has high liver cancer rates due to Hepatitis C impact. Japan reducing mortality through hepatitis control is a great achievement. We want to take the same approach.
Nordic countries have a long history of cancer registries and are confident in data quality. Japan started national registration relatively recently, but this data volume is impressive. 2.54 million patients is compelling.
In Mexico, many people can't afford screening for economic reasons. If we had a system where the government promotes screening like Japan, things might change.
Vietnam has high liver cancer rates even among young people. There's much to learn from Japan's experience, especially regarding vaccination and early detection efforts.