✈️ Fighter pilots defending Japan's skies are scrambled over 700 times a year. Each sortie costs approximately $38,000 per flight hour. The workhorse F-15 is over 40 years old. Chinese drones are cheap and can fly for 24+ hours—this "asymmetric warfare" is draining Japan. Can the UK-Italy-Japan sixth-generation GCAP fighter, scheduled for 2035, turn the tide?
The Reality of Scrambles
In fiscal year 2024, Japan Air Self-Defense Force (JASDF) conducted 704 scrambles against aircraft potentially violating Japanese airspace. This marked a 35-sortie increase from the previous year's 669, maintaining the consistently high levels of 700+ annual scrambles seen since 2013.
By country, Chinese aircraft accounted for approximately 66% (464 sorties), while Russian aircraft made up roughly 34% (237 sorties). Most notably, scrambles against Chinese unmanned aerial systems (UAS) surged nearly threefold—from 8 in FY2023 to 23 in FY2024.
Fiscal 2024 also witnessed historic events. In August, a Chinese military aircraft committed Japan's first-ever airspace violation by a Chinese military plane. In September, Russian aircraft violated Japanese airspace three times in a single day near Rebun Island, Hokkaido. In response, JASDF deployed flares as a warning for the first time in its history.
Burden Concentrated in the Southwest
The geographic distribution of scrambles reveals a stark imbalance. The Southwestern Air Defense Force, headquartered at Naha Air Base in Okinawa, handled 411 scrambles—approximately 58% of the total. This dwarfs other regional commands: Northern (152), Western (102), and Central (39).
The Southwestern Air Defense Force has exceeded 400 scrambles for five consecutive years, placing enormous strain on F-15J/DJ fighters and their pilots stationed there.
Reports from Naha Base describe days when scrambles occur "morning, noon, evening, and night without rest." Equipment troubles—engine anomalies, parts falling off—testify to the toll taken on overworked aircraft.
The Structural Problem of Cost Asymmetry
These scrambles present a serious "cost asymmetry" problem.
Operating an F-15 costs approximately $38,668 per flight hour. Aviation fuel alone runs about ¥2 million ($13,000) per mission. Add pilot standby and flight time, maintenance crew response, and parts wear, and the burden multiplies.
Meanwhile, Chinese reconnaissance drones are relatively inexpensive and some can stay aloft for over 24 hours. By repeatedly deploying cheap drones to force expensive manned fighters into the air, China can economically and physically exhaust Japan's air defense capabilities—a classic "cost imposition strategy."
Within Japan's Ministry of Defense, there's shared recognition that "China is increasing flights of inexpensive drones to wage attrition warfare against Japan and Taiwan."
Aging F-15 Fleet
JASDF currently operates approximately 200 F-15J/DJ aircraft at bases nationwide. Introduced in 1981, these "long-lived" fighters have served for over 40 years.
The fleet has undergone Multi-Stage Improvement Program (MSIP) upgrades to modernize computers and electronics, but only about half have been upgraded—the rest remain as "Pre-MSIP" aircraft. While the excellent basic design keeps them operational, fundamental airframe age cannot be ignored.
Additionally, although cutting-edge stealth F-35A fighters are being deployed, full fleet replacement won't happen quickly. F-15s will remain the backbone of air defense for the foreseeable future.
Exploring Drone-Based Response
Given these circumstances, the Ministry of Defense has begun studying drone-based scramble response.
Starting in FY2026, verification tests will use the U.S.-made MQ-9B Sea Guardian unmanned reconnaissance aircraft, which the Maritime Self-Defense Force plans to introduce. Approximately ¥1.1 billion has been requested for related costs. The Sea Guardian measures about 11 meters in length, can stay aloft for over 24 hours, and carries high-performance cameras and infrared sensors.
However, challenges remain. The Sea Guardian lacks warning shot or signal flare capabilities, raising questions about how it would respond to actual airspace violations. Air Chief of Staff Hiroshi Uchikura acknowledges, "At present, JASDF possesses no means other than manned fighters to respond to drones."
Expectations for GCAP
The fundamental solution to the scramble problem lies in GCAP (Global Combat Air Programme)—a next-generation fighter being jointly developed by Japan, the UK, and Italy.
GCAP is a sixth-generation stealth fighter intended to replace JASDF's F-2, targeting deployment in 2035. The three-nation collaboration was announced in December 2022, and in July 2025, the international organization "GIGO" was established in Reading, UK. Japan's Masaomi Oka, former Vice-Minister for International Affairs, serves as its first head.
The joint venture "Edgewing" handles development, with Japan's JAIEC (a consortium including Mitsubishi Heavy Industries), UK's BAE Systems, and Italy's Leonardo. Engine development involves IHI, Rolls-Royce, and Avio Aero.
Sixth-Generation Fighter Features
The GCAP fighter will incorporate two major advances over fifth-generation aircraft like the F-35.
First, integration with Collaborative Combat Aircraft (CCA). The manned fighter serves as a mothership, operating multiple drones as part of a "system of systems." This enables a single pilot to control multiple aircraft, potentially improving scramble efficiency.
Second, AI utilization. Artificial intelligence will assist in combat decisions and information processing, reducing pilot burden and accelerating decision-making.
The aircraft will also feature the Integrated Sensing and Non-Kinetic Effects (ISANKE) sensor system and Integrated Communications System (ICS), networking with ships, satellites, and ground stations. Mitsubishi Electric states this will significantly help "clear the fog of war."
Development Challenges and International Cooperation
However, GCAP development isn't entirely smooth. Former Air General Junichi Araki notes, "To achieve 2035 initial deployment, prototype manufacturing should have begun in 2025, but concrete progress is still coming."
Saudi Arabia's participation also remains contentious. While the UK and Italy are receptive, Japan remains cautious about extended negotiations from adding members and human rights concerns. Italian Prime Minister Meloni expressed support but noted it wouldn't happen "immediately," indicating time would be needed.
For the aircraft's name, the Ministry of Defense reportedly is considering "Reppū" (Strong Wind)—named after a late-WWII Imperial Japanese Navy fighter.
What It Means to Defend Japan's Skies
JASDF scrambles aren't just statistics. They represent the mission of pilots and ground crews maintaining 24/7/365 readiness to be airborne within five minutes.
Upon scramble orders, they're airborne within minutes, sometimes approaching unidentified aircraft at supersonic speeds, photographing them, issuing warnings, and forcing them to depart. This happens over 700 times annually.
With China's military activities intensifying and drone operations entering a mature phase, Japan's air defense stands at a crucial turning point. The limits of F-15s, the search for drone solutions, and next-generation GCAP development—multiple timelines intersect as Japan faces the question of how to maintain "air superiority," the fundamental premise of national defense.
In Japan, there are various opinions about increased defense spending and next-generation fighter development. What discussions exist in your country about "air defense"? We'd love to hear about your nation's fighters and scramble systems.
References
Reactions in Japan
To the personnel at Naha Base—thank you for your service. Over 400 scrambles a year is beyond imagination. And now they're mixed with drones? So unfair.
F-15 still active after 40+ years—must've been amazing design. But there are limits. Isn't GCAP in 2035 too late?
5.5 million yen per scramble... 700 times a year means over 3.8 billion yen? Now the defense budget increase makes sense.
China's drone strategy is brutal. Just flying cheap drones exhausts Japan's fighters. Smart, but dirty.
Before defense budget, shouldn't we improve pilot and crew conditions? 24/7/365 standby—people can't sustain that.
Naming the next-gen fighter 'Reppū'... The old military image is too strong. Would've preferred something more neutral.
Japan-UK-Italy fighter development means Japan's seriously entering international military cooperation. Mixed feelings, but maybe it's the times.
Using drones against drones makes sense. But what can a drone without warning shot capability do during actual violations?
My dad was an JASDF pilot. He says 'kids today have it harder than we did.' Frequency and opponents are totally different.
Russia violating airspace 3 times in one day is insane. JASDF's flare warning was calm, but is that enough?
Okinawa resident here. Honestly, scramble noise disrupts daily life. I know they're protecting us, but feelings are mixed.
Hearing GCAP development is delayed is really worrying. What happens to F-15s if 2035 isn't met?
AI in sixth-gen fighters is kind of exciting. If drone coordination improves efficiency, it's worth the investment.
Mitsubishi Heavy, IHI, Mitsubishi Electric... Japan's entire defense industry is involved. Please be careful about tech leaks.
Japan being cautious about Saudi participation reminds me of Three Principles debate. Balancing international cooperation and principles is tough.
With ADIZ discussions, seems many people yell 'China!' without understanding. Want calmer debate.
Saw F-15s at an air show once. Knowing they fly risking lives daily changes how I see them. Thank you, pilots.
Joint development with UK and Italy—maybe a sign of breaking from US dependence? Different from the F-35 era.
Taiwan faces the same situation. Chinese drones fly in almost weekly, exhausting our air force. Hope for stronger cooperation with Japan.
As a Brit, I'm excited about GCAP. The fusion of BAE Systems and Japanese technology through this collaboration is wonderful.
Germany is working with France and Spain on FCAS, but GCAP seems to be progressing better. Should we consider joining?
Filipino here. Facing Chinese threats in the South China Sea, JASDF's activities are reassuring for us.
Former USAF pilot here. F-15 reliability is world-class. But 40 years is long. Praying for GCAP's success.
Russian here. The three airspace violations near Rebun Island were too provocative, I think. Hope for de-escalation between our countries.
As an Italian, I'm proud of Leonardo's participation. Looking forward to the fusion of Japanese precision and Italian aviation tech.
Korea also has many scrambles against Northern threats. Would be good to share intel with Japan, but politically difficult.
From Australia. Japan's air defense capability is essential for Indo-Pacific security. Could GCAP coordinate with AUKUS?
As a Frenchman, it's interesting that Japan is co-developing a fighter with non-US partners. Looking forward to comparisons with Rafale.
Saudi here. I know our country wants to join GCAP, but I understand Japan's cautious stance.
Canadian defense analyst. Japan's cost imposition problem is happening in the North Atlantic too. Drone-era challenges are global.
Japanese living in the US. There's sentiment here that Japan's defense efforts should be more appreciated. GCAP strengthens alliances too.
From Vietnam. China's military expansion threatens us too. Japan's tech and experience contribute to regional stability.
NZ student here. Sixth-gen fighters combined with AI will change future warfare. A bit scary but fascinating.
Ukrainian here. We know firsthand how important air defense is. We support Japan's efforts.
From India. Our country also faces China at the border. Looking forward to stronger Japan-India defense cooperation.