🏢 Looking to buy a 70㎡ used condominium in Tokyo's 23 wards? That'll be ¥114.85 million (about $750,000) on average.

Properties that cost half as much just five years ago have now entered "oku-tion" (100-million-yen condo) territory as standard. People chose used condos because new ones were too expensive—only to find used ones equally out of reach. Even households earning ¥10 million annually are crying "too expensive!" What exactly is happening in Tokyo's housing market?

Used Condo Average Breaks ¥100 Million for First Time

2025 sent shockwaves through Tokyo's used condominium market. According to Tokyo Kantei, a real estate research firm, the average asking price for used condominiums in Tokyo's 23 wards (calculated per 70㎡) broke through the ¥100 million mark for the first time in May. Prices continued climbing, reaching ¥114.85 million in November—a 2.7% increase from the previous month and the 19th consecutive month of gains.

The severity of this surge becomes clear when comparing to past figures. LIFULL HOME'S research shows that compared to 2020, properties aged 10-15 years have roughly doubled in price (+¥72.75 million), while those aged 15-20 years increased by approximately 2.13 times (+¥65.75 million). The once-common wisdom that "used means affordable" has completely collapsed.

The central six wards (Chiyoda, Chuo, Minato, Shinjuku, Bunkyo, and Shibuya) are leading the price surge. As of September 2025, Chiyoda Ward's average asking price exceeded ¥250 million.

Why Have Prices Soared So Dramatically?

Plummeting New Condo Supply

The primary factor is the severe shortage of new condominium supply. Major cities like Tokyo have essentially exhausted available large-scale development land, making it impossible for developers to supply new condos as they once did. Rising construction labor costs, extended timelines due to work-style reforms, and imported material price increases have pushed construction costs higher, pricing new condominiums beyond ordinary citizens' reach.

Consequently, buyers who gave up on new properties have flooded the used market, driving up prices there as well.

Yen Depreciation and Foreign Investor Entry

Historic yen weakness has also significantly contributed. Exchange rates around ¥80 to the dollar in 2012 have fallen to nearly ¥150 by 2025. From foreign investors' perspective, "Tokyo condos look like they're half off."

According to Ministry of Land, Infrastructure, Transport and Tourism data, overseas residents acquired 3.5% of new condominiums in Tokyo's 23 wards from January to June 2025. This rises to 7.5% for the central six wards alone. Taiwan led with 192 acquisitions, followed by China at 30 and Singapore at 21.

Investment Purchases and Property Flippers

Beyond genuine housing demand, speculative buying has accelerated price increases. "Flippers" who purchase new condominiums and quickly resell for profit have emerged prominently. In some central luxury properties, units initially priced at ¥12 million per tsubo (3.3㎡) sold within a year of completion at over ¥30 million per tsubo.

In Mitsubishi UFJ Trust Bank's late-fiscal-2024 developer survey, about a third of developers put the foreign-buyer share at 20-40%—but specifically for new condos in the three most elite central wards (Chiyoda, Minato, Shibuya), not the metro area as a whole. That runs higher than the land-registry figure (3.5% across the 23 wards) precisely because it isolates the top-tier new-build market. Domestic wealthy individuals and corporations have also stepped up investment.

Can Ordinary Citizens Still Own Homes in Tokyo?

This situation poses serious problems for average-income households. Even high-earning households with ¥10 million annual income cannot afford new condominiums in central Tokyo, increasingly settling for 40-year-old used properties instead.

Some estimates suggest that to purchase a new family-sized condo in the ¥50 million range within the 23 wards, one must look at areas roughly an hour from central Tokyo by train—west of Hachioji, north to Kounosu, or east to Soga.

However, some experts point to "growing polarization between central and suburban areas." Outlying wards like Katsushika, Adachi, and Itabashi haven't seen the same dramatic price increases as central areas, retaining relatively affordable options. Areas like Nerima, Setagaya, and suburbs in Chiba, Kanagawa, and Saitama are gaining attention as "second-best" alternatives.

Future Outlook

Expert opinions on market trends from 2026 onward are divided.

The Bank of Japan raised its policy rate to 0.75% in December 2025, and rising mortgage rates could cool demand. Additionally, Tokyo Metropolitan Government projections indicate that households headed by those aged 25-54—the primary home-buying demographic—will peak in 2025 and then decline, suggesting long-term downward pressure on demand.

However, for central Tokyo specifically, many maintain that "there's no visible factor that would cause prices to drop." Compared to global cities like London, New York, and Hong Kong, Tokyo real estate still appears relatively affordable, and overseas investment demand is expected to continue.

Masayuki Takahashi, senior researcher at Tokyo Kantei, notes that "the upside potential for central Tokyo condominiums aimed at actual residents is becoming limited." Inventory is beginning to accumulate in central areas, and 2026 may bring a price adjustment phase.

What Happens to the Dream of "My Home"

A used condo crossing ¥100 million signals a shift in Japan's housing market. Home ownership was once a dream ordinary citizens could reach; in central Tokyo, at least, that premise is crumbling. At the same time, people are starting to widen their options—looking to the suburbs, or renovating older properties. How you respond comes down to your own values and life plans.

Central Tokyo condos have climbed beyond ordinary reach in Japan. In your country, is buying a home in the capital or a major city realistically possible? Tell us how it looks where you are.

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