🏢 Looking to buy a 70㎡ used condominium in Tokyo's 23 wards? The average is ¥114.85 million, roughly $765,000 at the exchange rate of the time. Properties that cost half as much five years ago are now standard "oku-tion" territory, the Japanese shorthand for a condo over 100 million yen. People turned to used units because new builds were unaffordable, only to find the used ones out of reach too. Even households earning ¥10 million a year say it is too expensive. What is happening in Tokyo's housing market?

Used Condo Average Breaks ¥100 Million for First Time

2025 sent shockwaves through Tokyo's used condominium market. According to Tokyo Kantei, a real estate research firm, the average asking price for used condominiums in Tokyo's 23 wards (calculated per 70㎡) broke through the ¥100 million mark for the first time in May. Prices continued climbing, reaching ¥114.85 million in November, a 2.7% increase from the previous month and the 19th consecutive month of gains.

The severity of this surge becomes clear when comparing to past figures. LIFULL HOME'S research shows that compared to 2020, properties aged 10-15 years have risen roughly 2.18 times (+¥72.75 million), while those aged 15-20 years rose about 2.13 times (+¥65.75 million). The once-common wisdom that "used means affordable" has collapsed.

The central six wards (Chiyoda, Chuo, Minato, Shinjuku, Bunkyo, and Shibuya) are leading the price surge. As of September 2025, Chiyoda Ward's average asking price exceeded ¥250 million.

Why Have Prices Soared So Dramatically?

Plummeting New Condo Supply

The primary factor is the severe shortage of new condominium supply. Major cities like Tokyo have essentially exhausted available large-scale development land, making it impossible for developers to supply new condos as they once did. Rising construction labor costs, extended timelines due to work-style reforms, and imported material price increases have pushed construction costs higher, pricing new condominiums beyond ordinary citizens' reach.

Consequently, buyers who gave up on new properties have flooded the used market, driving up prices there as well.

Yen Depreciation and Foreign Investor Entry

Historic yen weakness has also significantly contributed. Exchange rates around ¥80 to the dollar in 2012 have fallen to nearly ¥150 by 2025. From foreign investors' perspective, "Tokyo condos look like they're half off."

According to the first such survey by the Ministry of Land, Infrastructure, Transport and Tourism, published in November 2025, overseas residents acquired 3.5% of new condominiums in Tokyo's 23 wards from January to June 2025, up 1.9 points from 1.6% in 2024. The figure rises to 7.5% for the central six wards, and Shinjuku Ward tops the list at 14.6%. Of the 308 units bought by overseas residents across the 23 wards, Taiwan accounted for 192, more than 60%, followed by China at 30 and Singapore at 21.

The ministry's own reading, though, is that overseas buyers are a limited share of the market and not the main driver of the price surge. Property registrations do not record nationality, so purchases by foreign nationals living in Japan, or by Japanese subsidiaries of overseas companies, fall outside these numbers.

Investment Purchases and Property Flippers

Beyond genuine housing demand, speculative buying has accelerated price increases. The same ministry survey found that of new condominiums registered between January and June 2024, 9.3% were resold within a year across the 23 wards, rising to 12.2% in the central six. The closer to the center, the more flipping. In some central luxury properties, units initially priced at ¥12 million per tsubo (3.3㎡) sold within a year of completion at over ¥30 million per tsubo.

In Mitsubishi UFJ Trust Bank's late-fiscal-2024 developer survey, about a third of developers put the foreign-buyer share at 20-40%, but specifically for new condos in the three most elite central wards (Chiyoda, Minato, Shibuya), not the metro area as a whole. That runs higher than the land-registry figure (3.5% across the 23 wards) precisely because it isolates the top-tier new-build market. Domestic wealthy individuals and corporations have also stepped up investment.

Can Ordinary Citizens Still Own Homes in Tokyo?

This situation poses serious problems for average-income households. Even high-earning households with ¥10 million annual income cannot afford new condominiums in central Tokyo, increasingly settling for 40-year-old used properties instead.

Some estimates suggest that to purchase a new family-sized condo in the ¥50 million range within the 23 wards, one must look at areas roughly an hour from central Tokyo by train, west of Hachioji, north to Kounosu, or east to Soga.

However, some experts point to "growing polarization between central and suburban areas." Outlying wards like Katsushika, Adachi, and Itabashi haven't seen the same dramatic price increases as central areas, retaining relatively affordable options. Areas like Nerima, Setagaya, and suburbs in Chiba, Kanagawa, and Saitama are gaining attention as "second-best" alternatives.

Future Outlook

Expert opinions on market trends from 2026 onward are divided.

The Bank of Japan raised its policy rate to 0.75% in December 2025, and rising mortgage rates could cool demand. Additionally, Tokyo Metropolitan Government projections indicate that households headed by those aged 25-54, the primary home-buying demographic, will peak in 2025 and then decline, suggesting long-term downward pressure on demand.

However, for central Tokyo specifically, many maintain that "there's no visible factor that would cause prices to drop." Compared to global cities like London, New York, and Hong Kong, Tokyo real estate still appears relatively affordable, and overseas investment demand is expected to continue.

Masayuki Takahashi, senior researcher at Tokyo Kantei, notes that "the upside potential for central Tokyo condominiums aimed at actual residents is becoming limited." Inventory is beginning to accumulate in central areas, and 2026 may bring a price adjustment phase.

Update: For 2025 as a whole, the average price of a used condominium in Tokyo's 23 wards came to ¥103.93 million, up 34.6% year on year. Prices kept climbing into 2026, then fell 0.8% month on month in June to ¥127.41 million, the first decline in 26 months. Within that, the central six wards stood at ¥185.12 million, down 1.3% and falling for a second straight month. The share of listings whose asking price had been cut reached 50.9%, a level not seen since 2008, meaning more than half the units on the market had been marked down. Takahashi, now senior chief researcher at Tokyo Kantei, described it as a swing back from a run-up driven by investment money. The Bank of Japan, meanwhile, raised its policy rate to 1.00% in June 2026 and held it there at its late-July meeting.

What Happens to the Dream of "My Home"

Home ownership was once a dream ordinary citizens could reach. In central Tokyo, at least, that premise has broken. At the same time, the options are widening: the suburbs, or renovating older stock. How you respond comes down to your own values and life plans.

Central Tokyo condos have climbed beyond ordinary reach in Japan. In your country, is buying a home in the capital or a major city realistically possible? Tell us how it looks where you are.

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