🏢 Looking to buy a 70㎡ used condominium in Tokyo's 23 wards? That'll be ¥114.85 million (about $750,000) on average.
Properties that cost half as much just five years ago have now entered "oku-tion" (100-million-yen condo) territory as standard. People chose used condos because new ones were too expensive—only to find used ones equally out of reach. Even households earning ¥10 million annually are crying "too expensive!" What exactly is happening in Tokyo's housing market?
Used Condo Average Breaks ¥100 Million for First Time
2025 sent shockwaves through Tokyo's used condominium market. According to Tokyo Kantei, a real estate research firm, the average asking price for used condominiums in Tokyo's 23 wards (calculated per 70㎡) broke through the ¥100 million mark for the first time in May. Prices continued climbing, reaching ¥114.85 million in November—a 2.7% increase from the previous month and the 19th consecutive month of gains.
The severity of this surge becomes clear when comparing to past figures. LIFULL HOME'S research shows that compared to 2020, properties aged 10-15 years have roughly doubled in price (+¥72.75 million), while those aged 15-20 years increased by approximately 2.13 times (+¥65.75 million). The once-common wisdom that "used means affordable" has completely collapsed.
The central six wards (Chiyoda, Chuo, Minato, Shinjuku, Bunkyo, and Shibuya) are leading the price surge. As of September 2025, Chiyoda Ward's average asking price exceeded ¥250 million.
Why Have Prices Soared So Dramatically?
Plummeting New Condo Supply
The primary factor is the severe shortage of new condominium supply. Major cities like Tokyo have essentially exhausted available large-scale development land, making it impossible for developers to supply new condos as they once did. Rising construction labor costs, extended timelines due to work-style reforms, and imported material price increases have pushed construction costs higher, pricing new condominiums beyond ordinary citizens' reach.
Consequently, buyers who gave up on new properties have flooded the used market, driving up prices there as well.
Yen Depreciation and Foreign Investor Entry
Historic yen weakness has also significantly contributed. Exchange rates around ¥80 to the dollar in 2012 have fallen to nearly ¥150 by 2025. From foreign investors' perspective, "Tokyo condos look like they're half off."
According to Ministry of Land, Infrastructure, Transport and Tourism data, overseas residents acquired 3.5% of new condominiums in Tokyo's 23 wards from January to June 2025. This rises to 7.5% for the central six wards alone. Taiwan led with 192 acquisitions, followed by China at 30 and Singapore at 21.
Investment Purchases and Property Flippers
Beyond genuine housing demand, speculative buying has accelerated price increases. "Flippers" who purchase new condominiums and quickly resell for profit have emerged prominently. In some central luxury properties, units initially priced at ¥12 million per tsubo (3.3㎡) sold within a year of completion at over ¥30 million per tsubo.
Mitsubishi UFJ Trust Bank research indicates that 20-40% of metropolitan area condominiums supplied in late fiscal 2024 were purchased by foreign buyers, while domestic wealthy individuals and corporations have also increased investment activity.
Can Ordinary Citizens Still Own Homes in Tokyo?
This situation poses serious problems for average-income households. Even high-earning households with ¥10 million annual income cannot afford new condominiums in central Tokyo, increasingly settling for 40-year-old used properties instead.
Some estimates suggest that to purchase a new family-sized condo in the ¥50 million range within the 23 wards, one must look at areas roughly an hour from central Tokyo by train—west of Hachioji, north to Kounosu, or east to Soga.
However, some experts point to "growing polarization between central and suburban areas." Outlying wards like Katsushika, Adachi, and Itabashi haven't seen the same dramatic price increases as central areas, retaining relatively affordable options. Areas like Nerima, Setagaya, and suburbs in Chiba, Kanagawa, and Saitama are gaining attention as "second-best" alternatives.
Future Outlook
Expert opinions on market trends from 2026 onward are divided.
The Bank of Japan raised its policy rate to 0.75% in December 2025, and rising mortgage rates could cool demand. Additionally, Tokyo Metropolitan Government projections indicate that households headed by those aged 25-54—the primary home-buying demographic—will peak in 2025 and then decline, suggesting long-term downward pressure on demand.
However, for central Tokyo specifically, many maintain that "there's no visible factor that would cause prices to drop." Compared to global cities like London, New York, and Hong Kong, Tokyo real estate still appears relatively affordable, and overseas investment demand is expected to continue.
Masayuki Takahashi, senior researcher at Tokyo Kantei, notes that "the upside potential for central Tokyo condominiums aimed at actual residents is becoming limited." Inventory is beginning to accumulate in central areas, and 2026 may bring a price adjustment phase.
Summary
Tokyo's used condominium prices exceeding ¥100 million marks a major turning point for Japan's housing market. "My Home" ownership was once an achievable dream for ordinary citizens, but at least in central Tokyo, that era may be ending.
Meanwhile, new housing approaches are emerging—expanding to suburban options and renovating used properties. How individuals interpret and respond to this situation will depend on their values and life plans.
In Japan, central Tokyo condo prices have soared beyond ordinary citizens' reach. What's the housing situation like in your country? Is buying a home in your capital or major cities realistically possible? Please share your thoughts in the comments!
References
Reactions in Japan
Used condos in Tokyo over ¥100 million—it's become a completely different world that has nothing to do with ordinary people. Should've bought five years ago... nothing but regret.
Even households earning ¥10 million can't buy condos in central Tokyo? This is completely abnormal. What's happening with Japan's housing policy?
The condo I bought in Minato Ward 3 years ago would give me over ¥30 million in capital gains if I sold now. The gap between haves and have-nots is brutal.
People blame foreign investors, but the data shows only 3.5%? Speculative buying by Japanese wealthy and corporations seems like a bigger problem.
Even 25-year-old properties are over ¥100 million. By the time you resell, they'll be 40+ years old... worried if they can maintain value.
A young colleague who commutes to central Tokyo was house hunting all the way in Soga, Chiba. An era where you work in Tokyo but can't live there.
Honestly, I can't see these prices being sustainable. Won't the bubble burst once interest rates rise?
I live in Katsushika Ward, and there are still properties in the ¥50 million range here. It's still Tokyo even if it's not central.
So flippers have come to the real estate market too... This isn't limited-edition sneakers. We need regulations.
Shocked to hear foreign ownership at Harumi Flag exceeds 20%. Never thought the Olympic Village site would become investment properties.
Sorry to those profiting from real estate investment, but homes meant for living becoming speculation targets is unhealthy for society.
Even power couples struggle with central Tokyo now. Dual income of ¥15 million and still barely making it in the 23 wards.
I bought a used condo in 2020—complete winner. Just got lucky though.
With the weak yen, Japanese real estate must look like a bargain sale to foreigners. This is what having a weak currency means.
Seriously considering giving up on Tokyo and moving to the countryside. If remote work is possible, there's no reason to live in expensive Tokyo.
I thought renovating used condos was the best value... but those used condos are ¥100 million now. Not funny.
I'm from Hong Kong, and ¥100 million in Tokyo is still cheap compared to here. The same size would be over ¥300 million in Hong Kong. Tokyo real estate still has investment value.
Same situation in London. Young people are completely priced out of the housing market. This is a global problem.
Seoul, Korea is just as expensive. The term 'Hell Joseon' popular among youth is largely about housing issues. Are all Asian capitals like this?
Living in Germany, and Berlin and Munich have similar issues. But unlike Japan, we have strong tenant protections, so even if we can't buy, we can keep renting.
Sydney, Australia also has housing prices so high it's become a social issue. We tightened regulations on Chinese investment, but the effect was limited.
With China's real estate bubble burst, Tokyo is the perfect safe haven for wealthy Chinese wanting to protect assets. Politically stable too.
I live in NYC, and compared to Manhattan prices, Tokyo still looks okay. But considering salary levels, it's definitely tough for Japanese people.
Mumbai, India faces the same problem. Housing issues might be unavoidable in major cities with concentrated populations.
Vancouver, Canada introduced a 20% additional tax on foreign property purchases, but prices didn't drop much. Regulation alone won't solve this.
Paris is similarly expensive, but France has a solid social housing system, so even low-income people have options to live in the city center. Does Japan have such a system?
I bought a Tokyo condo from Taiwan for investment. Honestly, it's cheaper than Taipei, and the weak yen made it a good opportunity. Sorry to Japanese people, but...
In the UK, we have the term 'Generation Rent.' Is Japan heading the same way? The collapse of the homeownership dream?
Warsaw, Poland isn't as expensive as Tokyo yet, but prices surged after EU membership. Maybe economic development and rising housing prices go hand in hand.
Ho Chi Minh City, Vietnam is also experiencing a real estate bubble. Young people unable to buy homes seems to be a common Asian problem.
In Barcelona, Spain, short-term rentals for tourists became problematic and got regulated. Housing should be for living, not investment.