📉 On February 9, 2026, Japan's Nikkei 225 hit an all-time high of 56,363. 78% of stocks on the Tokyo Stock Exchange surged in a historic rally. But 291 stocks actually went DOWN. KDDI alone dragged the index down by 103 points, and Fujikura — despite posting record earnings — barely moved. Here's the story of the stocks that weren't invited to the party.
What Happened — The LDP's Landslide Ignites "Takaichi Trade"
On February 9, 2026, Japan's ruling Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) won a staggering 316 seats in the House of Representatives election — a postwar record and enough for a two-thirds supermajority. Markets exploded with optimism over Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi's aggressive fiscal spending agenda called the "Strategic 17 Fields," which includes massive defense spending, infrastructure investment, and food tax elimination.
The Nikkei 225 surged over 3,000 points (about 5.5%) intraday, briefly topping 57,000, before closing at 56,363 (+2,110, or +3.89%) — a new all-time high. Trading volume on the Tokyo Stock Exchange Prime Market exceeded ¥10 trillion (about $66 billion), a staggering figure.
Of the 1,592 stocks on the Prime Market, 1,249 gained, 291 fell, and 52 were flat. Only 3 of 33 sectors ended in the red: transportation equipment (autos), shipping, and steel.
In other words, nearly everyone was partying — except about 18% of stocks, quietly sighing in the corner.
The Star of the Show (For All the Wrong Reasons): KDDI
The biggest loser of the day was telecommunications giant KDDI (9433). Its stock plummeted as much as 10.25% to ¥2,512 ($16.70), recording its worst intraday drop since March 2020. KDDI's negative contribution to the Nikkei 225 was -103.49 points — the single largest drag among all 225 component stocks. Without KDDI's decline, the Nikkei would have closed above 56,466.
The cause? A massive fraud scandal at J:COM subsidiary G-Plan (under BIGLOBE, which KDDI acquired in 2017). The company disclosed that fraudulent circular transactions in its advertising business had been ongoing since around 2017, resulting in ¥246 billion ($1.6 billion) in overstated revenue and ¥33 billion ($220 million) in actual cash outflows.
CEO Koji Matsuda held a press conference to disclose the full extent of the fraud, and KDDI postponed its Q3 earnings release to the end of March — a highly unusual move. Ironically, the company's "real" business (excluding the fraud) was actually growing, which only amplified the question: "How did nobody catch this?"
Here are the stocks that dragged the Nikkei down the most:
| Rank | Stock | Drag (¥) | Reason |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | KDDI | -103.49 | Subsidiary fraud (¥33B cash outflow) |
| 2 | Tokyo Electron | -43.12 | Profit-taking after strong earnings |
| 3 | Fujikura | -14.71 | Pre-earnings profit-taking |
| 4 | Honda | -11.43 | Auto sector weakness |
| 5 | Subaru | -9.96 | Same as above |
Notably, Tokyo Electron — a bellwether semiconductor equipment maker — fell even as the semiconductor sector led the rally. Meanwhile, Advantest surged +11.5%. Same sector, very different outcomes.
Record Earnings, Zero Reward — Fujikura and Sony's Frustrating Day
Fujikura (5803) perfectly illustrated how cruel the market can be.
At 2 PM on February 9, Fujikura announced an upward revision of its full-year net profit forecast to ¥150 billion ($1 billion) — a 65% year-over-year increase. This was ¥18 billion above its previous guidance and a whopping ¥11.4 billion above the market consensus. The company also raised its annual dividend by ¥25 to ¥215 per share. Five consecutive years of record profits. A flawless earnings report.
The stock closed at ¥22,390 — down ¥5, or -0.02%. On a day when the Nikkei gained +3.89%, finishing flat effectively meant a 4% underperformance. The stock had risen from around ¥200 to ¥22,000 over recent years, so the "good news" was already priced in.
On Yahoo! Finance Japan's bulletin board, one investor had posted before the election: "Let's pray for a Takaichi LDP victory! Go to the polls even if it's snowing!" The LDP won big, the Nikkei exploded higher... but Fujikura just sat there. The irony was not lost on anyone.
Sony Group (6758) had a similar story — closing at ¥3,498 (-¥9, -0.26%) despite reporting strong Q3 results and raising full-year guidance. The stock is still about 23% below its November 2025 peak of ¥4,700, stuck in a "good earnings, bad stock price" limbo that has plagued entertainment stocks.
The Top Losers — Stocks That Hit the Floor While the Nikkei Hit the Ceiling
The full-market losers list was dominated by small-caps, with KDDI being the lone large-cap standout:
| Stock | Market | Price (¥) | Drop |
|---|---|---|---|
| Makoto Construction | TSE Standard | 1,657 | -23.18% |
| Kyowa Consultants | TSE Standard | 7,720 | -22.80% |
| Pixel Companyz | TSE Standard | 6 | -14.29% |
| F-Force Group | TSE Growth | 682 | -10.50% |
| KDDI | TSE Prime | 2,512 | -10.25% |
| Veritas | TSE Growth | 540 | -10.15% |
Yes, you read that right — Pixel Companyz was trading at ¥6 (about 4 cents). It dropped from ¥7 to ¥6, a 14.29% decline. While the Nikkei was celebrating 56,363, this stock existed in a parallel universe of single-digit yen prices. That's the depth of Japan's stock market for you.
Sectors Facing Structural Headwinds from Takaichi's Policies
The "Takaichi Trade" manifested as a classic trio: stocks up, yen down, bonds down. The USD/JPY rate hovered around 157, prompting Japan's Vice Finance Minister Mimura to warn that authorities were "watching with a high sense of urgency."
Several sectors face structural headwinds from the new government's policies:
1. Restaurant & Dining Industry — The Food Tax Trap
Takaichi's flagship policy of eliminating the consumption tax on food for two years sounds great for consumers, but creates a bizarre distortion: takeout food at 0% tax vs. dine-in at 10% tax. Under the current system, the gap is only 2% (8% for takeout vs. 10% for dine-in). This would widen to a full 10 percentage points. If the same beef bowl costs 10% less to take home, expect a massive shift away from restaurant dining.
2. Part-Time Labor-Dependent Businesses
Raising the "income wall" from ¥1.03 million to ¥1.6 million ($10,600 in new threshold) is great for workers, but it increases labor costs for industries heavily dependent on part-time staff — restaurants, retail, and nursing care. The restaurant industry gets hit with a double whammy: food tax distortion AND higher labor costs.
3. Interest Rate-Sensitive Sectors
Aggressive fiscal spending means more government bond issuance, pushing long-term interest rates higher. Japan's 10-year bond yield hit 2.38% in January 2026 — a 27-year high. Higher mortgage rates threaten real estate stocks, while railway companies with heavy debt loads face rising borrowing costs.
This Happens Every Time — The "Index Is Up But My Stocks Are Down" Problem
The complaint that "the Nikkei is at an all-time high but my portfolio is red" is not new. It's a structural feature of Japan's market:
- February 22, 2024 (Nikkei broke post-bubble record at 39,098): 31.3% of Prime Market stocks declined, and a staggering 60.5% of Growth Market stocks fell
- March 4, 2024 (Nikkei broke 40,000 for the first time): About 70% of Prime Market stocks actually declined
- 2025 full year: Three stocks alone — SoftBank Group, Advantest, and Tokyo Electron — accounted for 71.26% of the Nikkei's entire annual gain
The root cause is structural. The Nikkei 225 is a price-weighted index, meaning stocks with higher share prices have outsized influence regardless of company size. The NT ratio (Nikkei ÷ TOPIX) has risen steadily from 9.42 to 15.55 over 20 years, showing a growing disconnect between the headline index and market reality.
February 9's decline rate of 18% was actually healthier than 2024's record-breaking sessions (31% and 70% declining). The Takaichi Trade spread benefits across defense, shipbuilding, construction, real estate, and non-ferrous metals — a broader base than the semiconductor-dominated rallies of the past.
Meanwhile, in the Growth Market...
The Growth 250 index gained just +0.32% on this day — roughly one-twelfth of the Nikkei's +3.89%. Individual investors concentrated in growth stocks probably watched their timelines fill up with "Nikkei all-time high! Huge gains!" posts while staring at their own flat or red portfolios.
Takahide Kiuchi of the Nomura Research Institute threw cold water on the euphoria, arguing that "the Takaichi Trade is approaching its limits" and that "whether fiscal policy stays aggressive or is moderated, both scenarios carry stock decline risks." The morning-after headache may be coming — or the party could rage on toward 60,000. The market hasn't decided yet.
Looking at the Nikkei number and concluding "Japanese stocks are doing great!" is about as misleading as looking at average income statistics and thinking "everyone's wealthy." What matters is whether your portfolio was invited to today's celebration.
Does your country's stock market have a similar phenomenon — where the main index soars but most individual stocks don't follow? We'd love to hear your experience!
References
- https://www.nikkei.com/article/DGXZQOFL090ID0Z00C26A2000000/
- https://kabutan.jp/news/marketnews/?b=n202602090713
- https://www.bloomberg.com/jp/news/articles/2026-02-09/TA5XKDT9NJLS00
- https://news.yahoo.co.jp/articles/8c7d5cb7dea08b0a38980221d5dae2a3877e4f8b
- https://kabutan.jp/warning/?mode=2_2
- https://www.nri.com/jp/media/column/kiuchi/20260206.html
Reactions in Japan
I've held KDDI for 15 years, grateful for the dividends and shareholder perks. But -10% today... on the day the Nikkei hits an all-time high, my core holding does this. The fraud was a subsidiary issue and the main business is solid, so I'm staying calm instead of panic selling.
Growth 250 at +0.32%? Seriously? Next to the Nikkei's +3.89%, this is brutal. My portfolio is deep red while my timeline is full of 'my unrealized gains are insane.' Closing X now. Good night.
Fujikura: ¥18 billion upward revision, beat consensus, raised dividend... and it closed DOWN ¥5? That's almost impressive. What do they need to do to go up? Win a contract for a lunar base?
Me holding Honda and Subaru, watching my unrealized losses grow on the day the Nikkei hits a record high lol. The auto sector feels like it's in a different country's market. Doesn't make sense since the yen is weak, but Trump tariff fears are probably lurking.
TAKAICHI RALLY IS HERE! Mitsubishi Heavy, Kawasaki Heavy, IHI all surging near limit-up. So glad I loaded up last year. Next stop 60,000. Sorry for the position talk but I'm ecstatic.
Pixel Companyz at ¥6 lmao. In the era of Nikkei 56,000, there's a stock at ¥6. Amazing that someone thinks even ¥6 per share is too expensive.
As a mom doing tsumitate NISA for my kids' education, the record high is exciting but also nerve-wracking — is it safe to keep buying from here? But the right move is to stay the course and not get swayed by today's +2000 yen swing.
Everyone's talking stocks but USD/JPY at 157 is the real story. Mimura is doing verbal intervention already. If actual intervention comes, stocks get dragged down too. Don't get too euphoric.
Today's market in one sentence: 'The Nikkei average and individual stocks are different things.' NT ratio at 15.55 is historically abnormal. Just because the index rises doesn't mean your stocks will. Look at companies, not indices.
Zero food tax sounds great for consumers but it's hell for restaurants. Takeout at 0% and dine-in at 10% basically says 'don't eat at restaurants.' Who designed this? Did they talk to anyone in the industry?
From 38,915 in '89 to 56,000 now... Back then everyone believed stocks would rise forever, and we all got burned. I want to say this time is different, but this déjà vu... You get cautious with age.
Analyzed today's 291 declining stocks. About 40% were earnings-related profit-taking, 30% sector factors, 20% individual bad news, 10% supply/demand. Excluding KDDI, it was actually within normal profit-taking range — almost no panic selling.
PS5 Pro selling well, movies profitable, music streaming booming, image sensor orders up... yet stock is -23% from its high. I've accepted that Sony isn't a stock that moves on fundamentals anymore — it moves on 'sentiment.'
I was going to start investing today, but an all-time high on my first day? Too scary. The phrase 'buying at the top' keeps circling my head. Maybe dollar-cost averaging is the safe bet for beginners...
Construction sector exploding — unrealized gains increased by about a year's salary today (unrealized gains are illusions though). Takaichi's 'national resilience' policy means construction stocks have more room. Only problem is labor shortage means they can't build even if they win contracts...
From my reporting, many market participants compare this Takaichi rally to the Koizumi and Abe booms. But unlike then, rates are rising and inflation is ongoing. Same 'aggressive fiscal policy,' totally different environment. Can't write this in my articles, so I'll note it here.
Happy about the income wall going up to ¥1.6 million, but hearing that restaurant chain stocks I own might fall because of it... My part-time take-home goes up but my stock gains might shrink. What is this trade-off?
When the Nikkei broke 40,000 in 2024, about 70% of Prime Market stocks actually fell, so today's 18% declining is quite healthy. The Takaichi Trade benefiting defense, construction, and non-ferrous metals broadly is clearly different from 2025's semiconductor concentration.
I trade Japanese equities at a hedge fund on Wall Street. Today's Takaichi rally reminds me of Abenomics' launch in 2012. But the critical difference is the rate environment — zero then, 2%+ now. Same fiscal expansion, completely different macro impact. KDDI's case is a classic subsidiary governance failure, exposing another dark side of Japan's parent-child listing culture.
We have the same phenomenon with Sweden's OMX30 index. It hits all-time highs while my individual holdings are in the red — happens all the time. 'The index is up but...' is a universal lament. Though the Nikkei's NT ratio at 15.55 does seem extreme.
Same story with India's Nifty50. Reliance Industries and TCS alone drag the index up while most of the other 48 stocks are flat or down. But 3 stocks contributing 71% to Japan's Nikkei? That's concentration taken to an extreme.
I work for a German automaker, and Japanese auto stocks declining on the Nikkei's record day is telling. Honda and Subaru are pricing in Trump tariff risk. VW and BMW are in the same boat. The global auto industry has entered an era of 'political risk.'
KDDI's ¥246 billion fake transactions remind me of the UK's Patisserie Valerie scandal in 2019. Fraud at subsidiaries can happen no matter how good the parent's governance looks on paper. Could easily happen in the FTSE100 too.
Nikkei 56,000, so envious. Korea's KOSPI is struggling this year with our semiconductor one-trick-pony act. But Japan's structure of a few mega-caps driving the index is the same. If Samsung and SK Hynix stumble, we'd see the same scene. The grass just looks greener.
Brazil's Bovespa has the same issue — Petrobras and Vale disproportionately move the index. But the Fujikura story made me laugh. Record profits, raised dividend, and the stock drops ¥5? In Brazil there'd be riots (kidding).
Our UAE sovereign fund has been watching Japanese defense and infrastructure stocks closely. Takaichi's aggressive fiscal policy aligns with our investment thesis. However, we're carefully monitoring interest rate risks from increased bond issuance. Scandals like KDDI's raise questions about the reliability of Japan's ESG scoring.
I'm a retail investor from Vietnam. 'Index goes up but my stocks go down' is a meme on VN-Index too. But I'm shocked Japan has a ¥6 stock. We have 1,000 dong stocks (~¥6) in Vietnam, but I didn't know developed market exchanges had them too.
Australia's ASX200 has similar issues — mining and bank stocks have outsized influence, and tech stocks get completely left behind. Seeing the Nikkei's NT ratio chart made me realize this isn't just a Japan problem. But the Nikkei's case is particularly extreme.
The zero food tax policy is fascinating. In France, food VAT is 5.5% reduced rate while restaurants are at 10%. This gap actually helped build France's takeout culture. If Japan creates a 0% vs 10% gap, the takeout shift could be even more dramatic than what happened here.
Canada's TSX is too skewed toward energy and financials, and our tech companies all list on NASDAQ instead. Japan has the opposite problem — a two-tier structure of 'expensive Nikkei 225 stocks' and 'everything else.' Every country has its 'index trap.'
I study Japanese economics at a Polish university. Takaichi's 'Strategic 17 Fields' is interesting as industrial policy, but unfunded fiscal expansion risks the same pattern Poland experienced in the 2000s — deficit expansion leading to credit downgrades. Japan's situation differs since debt is denominated in yen, but market trust has limits.
On the Shanghai A-share market, 'index up, my stocks down' is so common it's become a meme. We even have slang for it: 'ge rou' (cutting flesh = cutting losses) and 'bei tao' (being trapped in unrealized losses). Japanese investors feel the same way. Market sentiment transcends borders.
Our Finnish pension fund holds Japanese telecom positions. KDDI's fraud is disappointing, but telecom dividend yields remain attractive. We actually see the 10% plunge as a buying opportunity. The fraud was specific to G-Plan, and KDDI's core telecom business value is intact.
I work at an auto factory in Mexico, and I understand why Japanese auto stocks are falling. If Trump raises North American auto tariffs, Japanese factories in Mexico get hit directly. Honda's Celaya plant is a pillar of the regional economy, so the tariff issue is very personal for us.