🚀 Japan's next-generation H3 rocket No. 8 has failed.
Just when it seemed to have recovered from the 2023 debut failure
with five consecutive successes, disaster struck again.
What is this "fairing separation anomaly" that emerged from the investigation?
Japan's space program now stands at a critical crossroads.
What Happened
On December 22, 2025, at 10:51:30 AM JST, the H3 rocket No. 8 lifted off from the Tanegashima Space Center in Kagoshima Prefecture. It was carrying the Michibiki 5, part of Japan's homegrown GPS satellite system. While the initial flight proceeded normally, approximately 25 minutes after launch, the second-stage engine's second burn failed to ignite properly and shut down prematurely. The satellite could not be placed into its planned orbit, and the launch was declared a failure.
This marks the second failure for the H3 rocket since its debut in March 2023. The success rate has dropped from 83% to 71%.
What Happened During Fairing Separation?
JAXA's investigation revealed that an abnormally large shock was observed at 225 seconds after launch, precisely when the fairing (the protective cover for the satellite) separated from the rocket.
The fairing separation mechanism has fundamentally remained the same design since the H-II rocket era of the 1990s, with no previous reported issues. However, this time, an unusual behavior was recorded: a large acceleration in the opposite direction of the vehicle's travel persisted for approximately 1.5 seconds immediately after separation.
This anomalous shock appears to have triggered a pressure drop in the second-stage liquid hydrogen tank. By the time the first burn started, pressure had fallen to about 80% of normal levels. As a result, the second burn could not be executed properly, preventing the satellite from reaching its intended orbit.
Onboard Cameras Captured the Anomaly
At a Ministry of Education investigation committee meeting on December 25, images from cameras mounted on the rocket were publicly released for the first time.
The images showed visible changes to the satellite's exterior after fairing separation, with what appeared to be panels peeling away. Additionally, during the first and second stage separation, debris-like objects were observed scattering in the footage.
JAXA estimates that parts of the satellite mounting structure (including the payload support structure and payload attach fitting) were likely damaged or destroyed.
Impact on Japan's Space Program
The ramifications of this failure are far-reaching.
First, the launch of H3 rocket No. 9, originally scheduled for February 1, has been postponed. The rocket was supposed to carry Michibiki 7, but with the need to investigate the cause and assess the impact on subsequent vehicles, no new launch date has been set.
Furthermore, all of Japan's flagship rockets are currently grounded. The smaller Epsilon S rocket also experienced an explosion during a combustion test in November 2024, delaying its development. Japan has temporarily lost its independent means of accessing space—an extremely serious situation.
The planned seven-satellite constellation service for Michibiki is also expected to be delayed, affecting Japan's autonomous GPS operation plans.
The Importance of the H3 Rocket
The H3 rocket was developed as the successor to the H-2A, which served Japan for 25 years. It aims to cut launch costs from approximately 10 billion yen (about $68 million) for the H-2A to around 5 billion yen (about $34 million).
For fiscal year 2026, six launches were planned, including the HTV-X 2 cargo spacecraft to the International Space Station and the MMX (Martian Moons eXploration) probe—the world's first mission to return samples from the Martian system.
JAXA President Hiroshi Yamakawa stated, "We will work with all our might to determine the cause and aim for an early return to flight," emphasizing that thorough investigation and countermeasures are underway.
Looking Ahead
JAXA plans to narrow down the possible causes through Fault Tree Analysis (FTA), verifying the validity of hypothetical scenarios.
The main factors still under consideration include mechanical energy from shocks or contact during fairing separation, chemical energy from propellants, high-pressure gases, or pyrotechnic devices, and insufficient strength in the satellite mounting structure components.
In past failures involving the H-2A and H3 No. 1, it took approximately one year to resume launches. A similar timeframe may be expected this time. However, to maintain Japan's autonomy in space development, steady progress in cause investigation and countermeasures is essential.
Space development is becoming increasingly important in Japan, and this failure presents a significant challenge. The ability to learn from failures and refine technology to restore trust is being put to the test.
How are rocket launch failures perceived in your country? What level of public interest and expectations exist for space development? We'd love to hear your thoughts!
References
- https://global.jaxa.jp/press/2025/12/20251222-2_e.html
- https://spacenews.com/japans-h3-suffers-second-stage-anomaly-qzs-5-satellite-lost/
- https://spaceflightnow.com/2025/12/22/h3-rocket-suffers-upper-stage-anomaly-fails-to-correctly-deploy-navigation-satellite/
- https://www.space.com/space-exploration/launches-spacecraft/japanese-h3-rocket-fails-during-launch-of-navigation-satellite
Reactions in Japan
The H3 failure is disappointing, but failures are part of space development. Even SpaceX has had many explosions. What matters is learning from failure. I support JAXA.
The H-2A achieved a remarkable record of 49 successes out of 50 launches, but H3 has only 6 successes out of 8. I'm worried that cost reduction is leading to quality decline.
Michibiki 5, worth about 30 billion yen, turned to space dust... It's taxpayer money, so I wish they had prepared more carefully.
A fairing problem now? After more than 30 years of the same design? There must have been some fundamental oversight.
Epsilon S is down, H3 is down. Japan has lost its own means of reaching space. This is a serious national security issue.
I saw the onboard camera images. The satellite looks like it was torn apart... That was shocking.
JAXA engineers must be under immense pressure right now. It's easy to criticize from the sidelines, but I want to trust them and wait.
If the MMX Mars probe launch is delayed, it will be a huge blow to Japan's space science. It's supposed to be the world's first Phobos sample return mission...
I'm a local from Tanegashima. The launch failure is really sad. But I know about the engineers' efforts, so I'm praying for success next time.
Failure after two consecutive postponements. Could it be that schedule pressure prevented thorough checks?
As a space engineer, fairing separation is more difficult than people imagine. The findings from this investigation will be valuable data for the entire industry.
With private space companies on the rise, this performance from the national flagship rocket is tough. Should we leverage more private sector capabilities?
JAXA's press conference was very sincere. They explained the facts calmly without making excuses. This attitude is trustworthy.
I heard the cost was 5 billion yen, but hundreds of billions disappear with each failure. Isn't it ending up expensive anyway?
Japan's space budget is less than one-tenth of NASA's. I have great respect for engineers working hard with limited resources.
This news at the end of the year is painful... But space development is a long journey. I hope they can recover next year.
The H3 failure is disappointing, but SpaceX has failed many times too. With Japan's technological prowess, they will definitely bounce back. Cheering for them.
As the space race intensifies, Japan stumbling is a global loss. Europe faces similar challenges. International cooperation becomes increasingly important.
Fairing separation issues are something we also watch carefully with Ariane 6. JAXA's investigation findings will likely be valuable for European rocket development too.
Balancing cost reduction and quality maintenance in rocket development is a difficult challenge. The world is watching how Japan will solve this.
Korea is also developing its own rocket. There's much to learn from Japan's experience. The transparency in disclosing and analyzing failures is commendable.
Honestly, seeing SpaceX's success, I question the future of traditional rockets. Shouldn't Japan invest in reusable rockets too?
As an ESA engineer, I highly respect JAXA's technical capabilities. One should not judge based on temporary failures.
For improved GPS services in the Asia-Pacific region, Michibiki's success is important. I hope for an early resumption of launches.
Two failures out of eight launches is not a good number. To compete in the commercial launch market, improving reliability is essential.
Space development symbolizes national prestige. Japan's failure is unfortunate, but I respect their technical challenge. We have experienced similar difficulties.
I'm worried about the delay to the MMX Mars probe. Losing opportunities for scientific discovery is a loss for all humanity.
India's ISRO has also experienced launch failures, but learned from them to get where we are today. JAXA will walk the same path.
From a space business perspective, consecutive failures risk losing customers. Japan could lose its position in the commercial launch market.
As a space exploration fan, I love Japanese technology. Remember Hayabusa's success. They can definitely come back!
For smaller countries, seeing a nation like Japan succeed in space development gives hope. I hope they overcome this failure and show the way again.