Even before the 2026 MLB season began, Japan's online baseball fans were already stretching their wrists. The regulars of "NanJ," one of Japan's largest anonymous baseball message boards, made bold predictions for three Japanese players who crossed the Pacific via the posting system. The season has passed the halfway mark. Let's line up the predictions against the numbers so far.

Who Are the NanJ-min?

"NanJ" is short for "Nandemo Jikkyo J," originally a board on 5channel (formerly 2channel). It was meant for live commentary on TV shows, but from around 2009 baseball fans poured in, and it became, in effect, "Japan's biggest online baseball forum."

If you had to sum up the NanJ-min in a phrase, it would be "intense passion and even more intense flip-flopping." When a player hits, he is "a god"; when he goes hitless the next day, "he's finished." This wrist-snapping reversal (te no hira gaeshi, literally "flipping your palm") is the NanJ-min's reason for being and their greatest entertainment.

NanJ's Official Language: "Mokoben"

You can't talk about NanJ without "Mokoben," the fake Kansai dialect NanJ-min use on the board, which has become NanJ's de facto official language.

"Moko" (fierce tiger) comes from a nickname for the Hanshin Tigers. It started when fans of other teams, with no connection to Kansai, began jokingly imitating Hanshin fans commenting in their local Kansai dialect. The distinctive Osaka speech of former Hanshin player and manager Akinobu Okada in interviews (nicknamed "Don-go") is also said to be one of its roots.

The key to Mokoben is its unnaturalness: it sounds like real Kansai dialect but is slightly fake. Everyone, young or old, uses "wai" for "I," and "-yade" or "-yaro" is tacked onto sentences regardless of context. Because it is forcibly glued onto standard Japanese, as in "meshi kutte kita yade" ("I went and ate, yade"), a real Kansai native spots it instantly.

There are set phrases too: "X is the best! We never needed Y in the first place!" (praising one thing while trashing another), "(akan)" ("(no good)," always in parentheses), "Why?! Hanshin's got nothing to do with it!" (a retort to NanJ-min who drag Hanshin into every topic), "seyana" ("yeah, right") and the suffix "-ngo."

Interestingly, heavy Kansai expressions like "ookini" ("thanks") or "chokeru" ("to fool around") are actually avoided. Mokoben is less a reproduction of Kansai dialect than a separate language that only works inside NanJ. It has even led to the absurd situation where people from Kansai who post in their natural dialect get told, "That's Mokoben, isn't it?"

So what did these NanJ-min predict before the season for the three Japanese players who moved to MLB in 2026? Let's compare their "reasoned outrageous claims" and "loving trash talk" with the actual numbers.

Tatsuya Imai (Houston Astros) | 3 years, $54 million (about ¥8.5 billion)

Profile

The right-hander reigned as the ace of the Seibu Lions. Born in May 1998, he turned 28 during the 2026 season. In 2025 he made 24 starts and put up a dominant 10-5 record with a 1.92 ERA and 178 strikeouts. Over the past three years he has pitched 470 innings with a 2.18 ERA. Along with a fastball that tops out at 158 km/h, he has a slider with a 46% whiff rate and a new pitch he learned in 2025, the "Vulcan changeup."

His contract is an unusual three-year, $54 million deal (up to $63 million) with an opt-out every year. It is a "showcase" contract: if he performs well in year one, he can aim for a much bigger deal from year two.

NanJ's Predictions

NanJ's predictions split broadly into "optimists" and "skeptics."

Optimists: 28 starts, 12-8, 3.30 ERA, 180 strikeouts

The optimists' reasoning was simple: his fastball, thrown from a low, almost sidearm release point, would be hard for MLB hitters to solve too. His high whiff rate in NPB was real, and many felt his slider-changeup combination would work in the majors. Some also pointed out that joining the Astros, known for developing pitchers, could help him grow further.

A typical comment: "Imai's fastball quality is good. He's on a different level from Yusei Kikuchi. That combo with the slider has gotta be top-tier even in MLB."

Skeptics: 26 starts, 8-10, 4.30 ERA, 155 strikeouts

The skeptics' numbers were close to US data-site projections. They had three main reasons. First, the risk of more home runs because MLB balls fly farther than NPB balls: he allowed just six home runs in NPB in 2025, but might give up close to 20 with the livelier MLB ball. Second, his high walk total (45) was a worry; against MLB hitters with better plate discipline, his control could get worse. Third, a repeat of the pattern of pitchers who dominated NPB but struggled in MLB, like Yusei Kikuchi and Kohei Arihara.

Cool-headed analyses like this also appeared: "Imai's a notch below Yoshinobu Yamamoto. He has fewer pitches and he's inconsistent. If you expect Yamamoto-level, you'll be let down."

Where He Stands in July 2026

On July 21 (local time) against the Marlins, he threw six innings of one-run ball with eight strikeouts for his sixth win. In 14 appearances he is 6-4 with a 5.59 ERA, worse than both the optimists' 3.30 and the skeptics' 4.30, and worse than the US data-site projection (4.37 ERA).

But it hasn't been one-note. On May 25 he threw six no-hit, scoreless innings as the starter in a combined no-hitter. The July 21 start was his fifth quality start of the season. As he puts it himself, his first year has been "a roller coaster with ups and downs." If the "chemistry with the Astros' pitching development" NanJ hoped for is going to kick in, it will be in the second half.

Munetaka Murakami (Chicago White Sox) | 2 years, $34 million (about ¥5.4 billion)

Profile

The left-handed hitter is affectionately called "Murakami-sama" (Lord Murakami). Born in February 2000, he is 26. In 2022 he hit 56 home runs and became the youngest Triple Crown winner ever, a true "treasure of Japanese baseball." He joined the White Sox from the Yakult Swallows on a short two-year, $34 million deal, far below pre-signing forecasts of eight years and $180 million (about ¥28.4 billion).

The deal breaks down as a $1 million signing bonus, a $16 million salary in 2026 and $17 million in 2027, with a no-minor-league clause. He will be a free agent in two years, a choice that burns his bridges to aim for a big contract backed by a major league track record.

NanJ's Predictions

Of the three players, Murakami drew the most divided predictions from NanJ.

Optimists: 140 games, .260, 33 HR, 90 RBI, .850 OPS

The optimists had absolute faith in Murakami's power. The power that produced 56 home runs is real, they argued, and even allowing for bigger MLB ballparks, 30-plus homers was a safe bet. With the rebuilding White Sox guaranteeing him playing time, he would have an environment to adapt to MLB pitching at his own pace. Some were even bolder: "Murakami's bat speed and power are top-class even in MLB. With the ball flying farther there, he might actually have an advantage."

Skeptics: 135 games, .225, 24 HR, 68 RBI, .750 OPS

The skeptics' biggest worry was his high strikeout rate. His 29% over his last three NPB seasons, they reasoned, would get worse against the higher average velocity in MLB. The US projection system Steamer also forecast 28.9%, among the worst in the league. Some fans also floated the "right-throwing, left-hitting ceiling" theory, and many pointed to Yoshitomo Tsutsugo's struggles.

There were also comments like, "Masataka Yoshida's slump made MLB teams distrust Japanese hitters. If Murakami doesn't succeed, NPB position players won't get called up anymore. The pressure's insane," showing how widely NanJ-min recognized the weight of responsibility.

Where He Stands in July 2026

He homered in each of his first three games, the first Japanese player to do so and only the fourth player in MLB history to homer in his first three games. As of mid-July he is batting around .240 with an OPS in the .930s. His average leans toward the skeptics, but his OPS far exceeds even the optimists' .850. He has also reached 250 career home runs combining Japan and the US.

An MLB.com analysis of his first 19 games found that strikeouts, walks and home runs made up 61.5% of his plate appearance outcomes, the second-most skewed among players with at least 60 plate appearances. In other words, both the skeptics' "lots of strikeouts" and the optimists' "home runs and power" came true at the same time. As a so-called Three True Outcomes hitter, he has become the core of the rebuilding White Sox lineup.

Kazuma Okamoto (Toronto Blue Jays) | 4 years, $60 million (about ¥9.3 billion)

Profile

The right-handed hitter was the Yomiuri Giants' fixture at cleanup. Born in June 1996, he turned 30 during his first US season. He has won three home run titles, two RBI titles and three Gold Gloves, and hit 30-plus home runs six years in a row from 2018 to 2023, combining power and consistency. In 2025 a left elbow ligament injury limited him to 69 games, but he still posted an astonishing .327 average, 15 home runs and a 1.014 OPS.

He secured the only long-term deal of the three (four years, $60 million) and was expected to form the heart of the Blue Jays' order with Vladimir Guerrero Jr. and others.

NanJ's Predictions

Interestingly, NanJ-min rated Okamoto relatively highly compared with Murakami.

Optimists: 145 games, .270, 25 HR, 85 RBI, .820 OPS

The optimists' biggest selling point was his low strikeout total. His career high in NPB was 132 strikeouts (a 21% strikeout rate), and the mainstream view was that his contact skills would work in MLB. US media also rated him as having "less downside risk than Murakami," and many NanJ-min agreed that "Okamoto is a safer investment than Murakami." His versatility at third base, first base and the outfield was also highly valued.

A typical comment: "Okamoto doesn't strike out, so he'll keep at least a .250 average. He's low-key, but I think he'll settle into MLB faster than Murakami."

Skeptics: 140 games, .245, 18 HR, 65 RBI, .740 OPS

The skeptics' concern was a lack of power. His maximum exit velocity of 108.9 mph (about 175 km/h) was below the MLB average, and they expected his 30 NPB home runs to drop to around 20. Some also pointed to his limited room for growth given his age.

Cool-headed analyses like this appeared: "Okamoto is steady, but his ceiling is low. He's an Alec Bohm type. Not bad, but not an exciting player."

Where He Stands in July 2026

Okamoto has defied predictions more than any of the three. The skeptics' fear of "not enough power" proved unfounded, at least in home run totals. On July 10 he hit his 22nd home run, tying the record for the most home runs by a Japanese player in his first major league season, a pace that fits neither the optimists' 25 nor the skeptics' 18.

His average, though, was .239 with a .776 OPS as of mid-July, close to the skeptics' .245 and far from the optimists' .270. NanJ's reading that "he doesn't strike out, so his average will hold up" was wrong, and so was "he doesn't strike out but his power will drop." In short, both camps misread Okamoto.

At the All-Star Game in July, he made the final two in fan voting for American League third baseman but lost to the Rays' Junior Caminero. Getting that far in his first year already exceeds the pre-season label of a "low-key safe bet."

Lessons from the History of Flip-Flopping

What makes NanJ predictions fun is how often they miss and how fast they flip. There have been plenty of classic moments.

When Shohei Ohtani announced his move to the majors in the 2017 offseason, the overwhelming view was "two-way play will never work" and "he should focus on pitching." Now it's "Ohtani is the greatest player in human history." When Seiya Suzuki moved to the Cubs, many predicted "about .260 with 20 homers in the majors," and in his first year he hit .262 with 14 home runs, just about that, but injuries in later years sent his reputation up and down.

In short, NanJ predictions are hit or miss. That is exactly why checking the answers is the best entertainment.

A Midseason Check

Player Team NanJ optimists NanJ skeptics US projection As of July 2026
Tatsuya Imai Astros 12 W, 3.30 ERA 8 W, 4.30 ERA 8 W, 4.37 ERA 6-4, 5.59 ERA
Munetaka Murakami White Sox .260, 33 HR, .850 OPS .225, 24 HR, .750 OPS .231, 30 HR, .791 OPS ~.240, .930s OPS
Kazuma Okamoto Blue Jays .270, 25 HR, .820 OPS .245, 18 HR, .740 OPS .251, 22 HR, .769 OPS .239, 22 HR, .776 OPS

Remarkably, no one got it right. Imai has struggled more than either camp predicted; Murakami's average matched the skeptics while his OPS beat the optimists; and Okamoto's home runs soared while his average sank. The wall between NPB and MLB takes many forms: the ball, the size of the ballparks, the average velocity of pitchers, travel distances. These midseason numbers show that the wall has a different shape for each player.

The NanJ-min's wrists have already made several round trips. That is the real joy of Japanese baseball fan culture, and also the greatest respect for the players (probably). The final answers come in October.

Do sports fans in your country have their own culture of flip-flopping when predictions miss?

References